Risk and Rationality

abdominal pain accept actually Alea wins alternative answer appendicitis Bayes behaviour bias biases bookmaker calculated cards cent chance child Child's effect choice classification cognitive coin concept concerned consequences coping patterns course of action decision theory decision-making defensive avoidance degree of belief diagnosed event example existence expectation strategy expected utility fact fair false negative feel Figure FRED Fred Holroyd frequentist gambling game theory happen hindsight bias human individual involved JANE Janis and Mann judgment likelihood lung cancer means monetary normative objective occur particular payoff table person physical possible outcomes Prob probability assessments problem question random rational reason relative frequencies relevant representativeness heuristic responsibility result risk taking risk-taking risky shift sense sequence simply situation social worker society someone sort statistical independence subjective expected utility subjective probability subjectivist things tossing uncertainty Unit utility curve vaccine whooping cough